This week Booz & Company released the results of a new survey of 2,000 consumers that found that a "new frugality" is "becoming entrenched". In the article describing the findings, there were a number of statements that caught my eye:  

In a Reuter's piece that appeared earlier this week, J.C. Penney CEO Myron Ullman said, "Department stores must keep ramping up exclusive lines of clothing and accessories if they are to win market share from rivals and thrive in the still sluggish U.S. consumer spending environment."  

I'm worried that many independent retailers may be in serious financial trouble.

In a post last week, I highlighted an article in the New York Times that focused on Saks, Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom, and their efforts to sustain full retails through a conscious strategy of limiting quantity. Two quotes from that piece stood out.  

I'm keeping my eye on Saks.  

CIT Group filed for bankruptcy protection on Sunday, after spending the better part of 2009 trying to avoid just that. The filing was "prepackaged", in that CIT's creditors have already agreed to a restructuring plan that, in theory, will allow the company's business to go forward largely intact, and allow the company to emerge from bankruptcy relatively quickly.  

Yesterday, the Commerce Department reported that third quarter GDP rose 3.5%, the first increase after four straight quarters of decline, including a staggering 6.3% decline in the first quarter of this year. Reaction was quick to call this proof that the recession has ended, and that a rebound is well underway. More cautious reaction pointed out that many economists think that this was mostly a bounce-back quarter, and that the outlook for the next few quarters is decidedly more modest.  

The latest Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers came out this morning, and it reported continued improvement in consumer sentiment. The Survey's preliminary index for September rose to 70.2, up from 65.7 in August. The 70.2 reading was the highest since June, and roughly on par with the September 2008 reading, before the financial crisis hit and the bottom fell out of retail sales.  

In talking with clients over the past week, and reading some of the local reporting, it appears that retail business during the last weekend in August and the first full week of September has shown some renewed signs of life. While this is certainly encouraging, we've seen these brief spurts of business before, only to see business to sink back to a disappointing baseline.  

Yesterday, Global Hunter Securities, LLC released their "Early Estimate of Retail Sales", in which they put numbers to what a lot of retail analysts and observers have been forecasting. Global Hunter is projecting that retail sales for October, November and December, combined will come in between a 1% increase and a 1% decrease versus the same period in 2008.